- Make statistics the bedrock to decision making.
- Odds compilers use statistics as the foundation for their odds / prices. You should use the very same statistics to beat them.
- There are obviously short term environmental factors to consider as well as form and injuries that may distort the statistics on any one day but over a season the numbers don’t lie.
- Knowledge of the statistics will help you understand whether the odds available represent value. For example, knowing that the average goals scored across the English football leagues (Premiership – Conference) is 2.57 (04/05 season) and that 46% of home teams win will help you understand whether the bet you are about to place on an English football match represents anything like a good thing.
- You can drill down further into this overall information you have for all English professional leagues and look at what happens in each respective league to give you a further understanding of value and hopefully edge against the bookmakers.
- You will note that the trends in England are broadly similar across leagues but knowing specifics will give you an edge when looking at odds available.
- The Odds betting Readywill help you convert the bookmakers odds into a percentage chance of an event happening.
- For example, Liverpool were notoriously inconsistent in their Champions league winning season (04/05). Very often you could find them priced between 4/5 (1.8) or 8/13 (1.62) to win away from home in the Premiership. That meant that the bookmaker was pricing Liverpool using a range of 55.56% (4/5) and 61.90% (8/13) probability of winning. Now, we know that in general a team playing away from home will win 26% of the time. This would make Liverpool nearer an 11/4 (3.75) or a 3/1 (4.00) shot in reality but the bookmaker knows that punters are tempted by other factors, which on the whole, should not really come into it when making a betting decision – reputation for example.
- Research your sport and be selective
- Know two or three sports inside out. Don’t spread yourself too thin. If you know nothing about cricket don’t be tempted to have a punt just because the Ashes is on the television. Stick to what you know and look for the value. Compare bookmakers’ prices and ensure you get the best price available – it will make a big difference to your overall profit and loss. If a price about an event feels about right – don’t bet. Only bet when you think the bookies have got it wrong.
- Keep Records
- Keep records of your betting activity. Test, learn and evaluate your betting patterns. What are you doing right, what are you doing not so well? Without records it is easy for you to forget bad losses. Gamblers are prone to wear rose tinted spectacles about such matters. You need to know how much you are gambling per week, month and year, your selections split by sport and your profit and loss.
- Don’t be tempted by the bookies marketing blurb
- Have you ever wondered why a bookmaker advertises in the Racing Post or perhaps sponsors a radio show with their hot tips of the day? Well, they advertise their weird and wonderful bets because they are almost always losing bets and easy money for the bookmaker. First and Last Goal Scorer bets, for example, are bets created by bookmakers for bookmakers and should be avoided if you are looking to make money from your gambling. The margin for the bookmaker on these bets is hideous and will leave you out of pocket.
- Don’t entertain any fancy sounding bets that you see in the marketing blurb. On FA Cup Final day 2005 Sporting Index advertised a market in which Wayne Rooney was quoted a spread of 4 - 6…wait for it…for how many times he would be caught swearing on camera! This is a ridiculous bet and you can’t place a wager on it with anything other than silly guesswork.
- In-running - don't overreact
- In-running betting has become very popular and can provide a great way of hedging your bets if you are an experienced gambler and market watcher. It is very important however, not to get carried away. Events in running can change very quickly and they do. There are numerous examples including the famous 2005 Champions League Final between AC Milan and Liverpool. At 3 - 0 Liverpool were dead and buried and the odds reflected that. On the exchanges some punters were matching Milan at 1.01. The game finished a 3 - 3 draw and all those people who thought they were picking up easy money were stung very badly.
England (Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, Conference 04/05 season)
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